By fuelling our economy through ever-rising levels of household debt, we are repeating the mistakes that led to the 2007-08 financial crisis.
Ever since that crisis, the Government and Bank of England have tried to encourage further consumer borrowing via further lending by banks. As former FSA chairman Lord Turner put it, this was a “hair of the dog” strategy for economic recovery, treating the cause of the financial crisis – excessive borrowing – as though it could also be the solution.
However, household debt can only grow faster than salaries for so long before the weight of the debt becomes excessive. With household debt already close to its highest level in history, and set to rise further as a result of Government policy and easier lending by banks, we believe the current economic recovery is unsustainable. Just as the economy is running on borrowed money, the recovery is running on borrowed time.
There is therefore a need for an alternative strategy for a more sustainable economic recovery. This paper proposes this alternative, a new solution called Sovereign Money Creation (SMC).
In 2 Minutes:
There are currently two sources of money into the UK economy:
1. Money created by banks, when they make loans. This currently makes up the majority of money in the economy.
2. Money created by the Bank of England on behalf of the government. Currently this makes up a tiny percentage of the money in the economy.
The problem we currently have is that the government isn’t willing to use its power to create money in the public interest. Instead, it relies on the same banks that caused the financial crisis to create money. But most of the money created by banks goes into house price bubbles (40% of all new money created in the 10 years running up to the financial crisis) and financial markets (37%), whereas only a minority (13%) ends up in the real economy.
So right now, we see banks still reducing their lending to businesses, whilst increasing their lending for mortgages and business. If household debt is rising, but businesses aren’t able to increase salaries, then sooner or later, some of the debt becomes unpayable and people will default. The government’s strategy for getting the economy growing again could actually lead us back into another financial crisis.
In Sovereign Money: Paving the Way for a Sustainable Recovery, we’ve outlined the reasons why the government is making a dangerous mistake by relying on further bank lending to boost spending and help the economy grow. We explain how a process called Sovereign Money Creation (SMC), which involves allowing the Bank of England to create money, which would be granted to the government and spent into the real (non-financial) economy would boost spending and employment but without requiring households to borrow even more. Rather than increasing the total amount of debt in the economy, SMC actually lowers it. It would make the current ‘recovery’ into a sustainable one, rather than one fuelled by credit cards and mortgage lending.
Importantly, the creation of sovereign money through SMC can be done without having to stop banks creating money, so it’s something the government and Bank of England could do right now without having to face the counter-lobbying and political battle of trying to remove subsidies and privileges from the banking sector.